Emission estimates and air quality simulation on Lombardy during lockdown.

This paper illustrates the study carried out by ARPA Lombardia to quantify the variation in daily emissions of the main pollutants and their impacts on air quality in Lombardy during the anti-COVID-19 lockdown between the end of February and the end of May 2020. A methodology for emission estimates was developed over Lombardy for this purpose and later was extended to larger areas: the Po-basin, (LIFE PREPAIR 2020) and the entire Italy (PULVIRUS 2021). In this study, the daily emissions estimates were derived by combining data from air emission inventory of Lombardy and a set of indicators that allowed to update the estimates and describe the temporal and spatial variations of the emission sources. The calculation of emission variation was conducted for all the main pollutants (PM10, NH3, NOx, SO2, NMVOC) and the greenhouse gases; then, the impact on air quality concentrations was simulated by the chemical and transport model FARM, that also allows to track secondary particulate and its variability in time and space on the basis of nonlinear processes and weather conditions. The estimated emission reduction, compared to the expected average value in the absence of anti-COVID-19 measures, daily varies depending on pollutants and is mainly affected by reductions in road traffic emissions and an estimated increase in domestic heating emissions. Simulations confirm strong reductions of NO2 atmospheric average concentrations, slightly variations of PM10 averages and a potential growth of tropospheric ozone.

Early administration of tofacitinib in COVID-19 pneumonitis: An open randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Controversies on sub-populations most sensitive to therapy and the best timing of starting the treatment still surround the use of immunomodulatory drugs in COVID-19. OBJECTIVES: We designed a multicentre open-label randomised controlled trial to test the effect of prompt adding of tofacitinib to standard therapy for hospitalised patients affected by mild/moderate COVID-19 pneumonitis. METHODS: Patients admitted to three Italian hospitals affected by COVID-19 pneumonitis not requiring mechanical ventilation were randomised to receive standard treatment alone or tofacitinib (10 mg/bid) for 2 weeks, starting within the first 24 h from admission. RESULTS: A total of 116 patients were randomised; 49 in the experimental arm completed the 14-day treatment period, 9 discontinued tofacitinib as the disease worsened and were included in the analysis, and 1 died of respiratory failure. All 58 control patients completed the study. Clinical and demographic characteristics were similar between the study groups. In the tofacitinib group, 9/58 (15.5%) patients progressed to noninvasive ventilation (CPAP) to maintain SO2 > 93%, invasive mechanical ventilation or death by day 14 was 15.5%, significantly less than in the control group (20/58, 34.4%, RR 0,45, RRR -55%, NNT 5; p = .018). No differences in severe adverse effect incidence had been observed across the groups. CONCLUSION: High-dose tofacitinib therapy in patients with COVID pneumonitis is safe and may prevent deterioration to respiratory failure.

Emission estimates and air quality simulation on Lombardy during lockdown

   This paper illustrates the study carried out by ARPA Lombardia to quantify the variation in daily emissions of the main pollutants and their impacts on air quality in Lombardy during the anti-COVID-19 lockdown between the end of February and the end of May 2020. A methodology for emission estimates was developed over Lombardy for this purpose and later was extended to larger areas: the Po-basin, (LIFE PREPAIR 2020) and the entire Italy (PULVIRUS 2021). In this study, the daily emissions estimates were derived by combining data from air emission inventory of Lombardy and a set of indicators that allowed to update the estimates and describe the temporal and spatial variations of the emission sources. The calculation of emission variation was conducted for all the main pollutants (PM10, NH3, NOx, SO2, NMVOC) and the greenhouse gases;then, the impact on air quality concentrations was simulated by the chemical and transport model FARM, that also allows to track secondary particulate and its variability in time and space on the basis of nonlinear processes and weather conditions. The estimated emission reduction, compared to the expected average value in the absence of anti-COVID-19 measures, daily varies depending on pollutants and is mainly affected by reductions in road traffic emissions and an estimated increase in domestic heating emissions. Simulations confirm strong reductions of NO2 atmospheric average concentrations, slightly variations of PM10 averages and a potential growth of tropospheric ozone.

Fear for CoViD-19 and reluctance to work among health care workers during the epidemic, a prospective monocentric cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Health care workers (HCW) are facing the Coronavirus disease 2019 (CoViD-19) epidemic. Consequently, psychological impairments have been reported. However, literature showed controversial results on the relationship between gender, frontline HCW, and psychological impairments. This study aims to investigate CoViD-19 fear and reluctance to work in HCW. METHODS: Employees who worked between April and October 2020 at the UZ Brussel were included. Data were prospectively collected in 2 phases through a survey together with serological tests. Sampling strategy was convenience sampling. RESULTS: About 2,336 employees completed the study and response rate was 70%. The prevalence of severe CoViD-19 fear in participants increased from 9% to 15%. Employees showing way less motivation rose from 9% to 14%. The seroprevalence was 7.4% and 7.9%. Multivariable analysis found a relation between reluctance to work, study phase, female gender, shortage of personal protective equipment, and poor education on CoViD-19. Furthermore, CoViD-19 fear was related to the study phase, older age, female gender, being second-line HCW, reported exposure to CoViD-19 during work, and insufficient education on CoViD-19. DISCUSSION: Seroprevalence remained rather stable, but fear and reluctance to work significantly increased. Differences in time of data collection together with epidemiological setting might be responsible for conflicting data reported in literature. CONCLUSIONS: The evolution of the epidemiological setting might influence the results of studies investigating psychological impairments in HCW.

Circulating miR-320b and miR-483-5p levels are associated with COVID-19 in-hospital mortality.

The stratification of mortality risk in COVID-19 patients remains extremely challenging for physicians, especially in older patients. Innovative minimally invasive molecular biomarkers are needed to improve the prediction of mortality risk and better customize patient management. In this study, aimed at identifying circulating miRNAs associated with the risk of COVID-19 in-hospital mortality, we analyzed serum samples of 12 COVID-19 patients by small RNA-seq and validated the findings in an independent cohort of 116 COVID-19 patients by qRT-PCR. Thirty-four significantly deregulated miRNAs, 25 downregulated and 9 upregulated in deceased COVID-19 patients compared to survivors, were identified in the discovery cohort. Based on the highest fold-changes and on the highest expression levels, 5 of these 34 miRNAs were selected for the analysis in the validation cohort. MiR-320b and miR-483-5p were confirmed to be significantly hyper-expressed in deceased patients compared to survived ones. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression models, adjusted for relevant confounders, confirmed that patients with the 20% highest miR-320b and miR-483-5p serum levels had three-fold increased risk to die during in-hospital stay for COVID-19. In conclusion, high levels of circulating miR-320b and miR-483-5p can be useful as minimally invasive biomarkers to stratify older COVID-19 patients with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality.

Diagnostic accuracy of screening tests for patients suspected of COVID-19, a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The diagnostic gold standard for Coronavirus-2019 disease (CoViD-19) is reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). However, its sensitivity might be suboptimal. The current study aims to investigate predictive factors for false-negative nasopharyngeal RT-PCR in CoViD-19 patients. Additionally, the specificity and sensitivity of RT-PCR on the nasopharyngeal swab, serology and chest computerized-tomography (CCT) as a screening tool for the diagnosis of CoViD-19 were investigated. METHODS: Medical records of patients admitted at the university hospital UZ Brussel during the CoViD-19 epidemic were reviewed. A group of CoViD-19 patients with false-negative RT-PCR was identified through scrupulous examination of medical records. Serological testing was performed through chemiluminescent microparticle assay. RESULTS: Eighteen CoViD-19 patients with 'false negative' RT-PCR were identified and compared to 51 'true positives'. Logistic regression for prediction of 'false negative' RT-PCR found significantly higher serology results at hospitalization and more intensive care unit admission in the group with false-negative testing. In a cohort of 228 patients, the sensitivity of RT-PCR for the diagnosis of CoViD-19 was 85%. The sensitivity of serology was 86% and its specificity 92%. Chest computerized-tomography (CCT) showed a sensitivity of 93%, its specificity was 62%. By combining RT-PCR and serology results any 'false negative' could be excluded. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort, the sensitivity and specificity of RT-PCR and serology for the diagnosis of CoViD-19 were high and comparable. CCT had the highest sensitivity and confirmed its efficacy as a screening tool. CoViD-19 patients, who have a more severe presentation, might have negative RT-PCR and positive serology results.

Ventilator-associated bacterial pneumonia in coronavirus 2019 disease, a retrospective monocentric cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Severe coronavirus 2019 disease (CoViD-19) may lead to respiratory failure and mechanical ventilation. Therefore, ventilator associated pneumonia (VAP) may complicate the course of the disease. The aim of the current article was to investigate possible predictive factors for bacterial VAP on a retrospective manner, in a cohort of mechanically ventilated CoViD-19 patients. Additionally, determinant factors of lethality were analyzed. METHODS: Medical records of patients hospitalized in the intensive care units (ICU) at the university hospital UZ Brussel during the epidemic were reviewed. VAP was defined following the National Healthcare Safety Network 2017 criteria. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions analyses were performed. RESULTS: Among the 39 patients included in the study, 54% were diagnosed with bacterial VAP. Case fatality rate was 44%, but 59% of the deceased patients had a do-not-resuscitate status. Multivariate logistic regression for prediction of VAP showed significant differences in duration of ICU hospitalization and in minimal lung compliance. Additional analyses were performed on CoViD-19 patients who were affected by bacterial respiratory superinfection. The responsible pathogens correspond to the commonly found bacteria in VAP. However, 71% of the isolated germs were multi-drug resistant and bacteraemia was reported in 38%. Multivariate analyses for prediction of lethality found significant difference in SOFA score. CONCLUSIONS: Mechanically ventilated CoViD-19 patients might frequently develop VAP. Longer ICU hospitalization was associated with pulmonary superinfection in the current cohort. Moreover, decreased minimal lung compliance was correlated to VAP and higher SOFA score at VAP diagnosis was associated with lethality.

Decreased serum levels of the inflammaging marker miR-146a are associated with clinical non-response to tocilizumab in COVID-19 patients.

Current COVID-19 pandemic poses an unprecedented threat to global health and healthcare systems. The most amount of the death toll is accounted by old people affected by age-related diseases that develop a hyper-inflammatory syndrome. In this regard, we hypothesized that COVID-19 severity may be linked to inflammaging. Here, we examined 30 serum samples from patients enrolled in the clinical trial NCT04315480 assessing the clinical response to a single-dose intravenous infusion of the anti-IL-6 receptor drug Tocilizumab (TCZ) in COVID-19 patients with multifocal interstitial pneumonia. In these serum samples, as well as in 29 age- and gender-matched healthy control subjects, we assessed a set of microRNAs that regulate inflammaging, i.e. miR-146a-5p, miR-21-5p, and miR-126-3p, which were quantified by RT-PCR and Droplet Digital PCR. We showed that COVID-19 patients who did not respond to TCZ have lower serum levels of miR-146a-5p after the treatment (p = 0.007). Among non-responders, those with the lowest serum levels of miR-146a-5p experienced the most adverse outcome (p = 0.008). Our data show that a blood-based biomarker, such as miR-146a-5p, can provide clues about the molecular link between inflammaging and COVID-19 clinical course, thus allowing to better understand the use of biologic drug armory against this worldwide health threat.